November Jobs Report Stirs Optimism But Economy Still Weak

Unemployment data released today by the U.S. Department of Labor indicates that although job losses have slowed significantly, the economy continues to face challenges.

According to the report the U.S. economy shed 11,000 jobs in November, the smallest decline since the recession began in December 2007. The unemployment rate edged down to 10.0 percent. Retail job losses slowed to 14,500, compared to the more than 44,000 jobs lost in October.

“Today’s unemployment report gives hope to consumers and retailers that a recovery may not be far off. However, it is also a reminder that employers seeking to grow their workforces continue to face challenges,” said RILA President Sandy Kennedy. “Policymakers intent on stimulating job growth and the economy must focus on reducing the challenges employers face rather than erecting new barriers to job creation – which elements of the health care legislation under consideration threaten to do.”

The average of 87,000 jobs lost per month in the overall economy over the past three months is down considerably from the 700,000 per month pace of job loss at the depth of the recession.

The retail industry shed 14,500 jobs last month, an improvement over the more than 44,000 retail jobs lost in October and considerably better than the 90,800 jobs lost in November 2008. The retail industry averaged 33,000 job losses over the past three months, compared to an average of 70,000 over the same period last year.

Other economic data likewise show that the economy has begun to recover. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have fallen back to the level of last September before the worst part of the financial crisis, while increases in personal income and spending in October suggest improved prospects for families. The housing market remains weak but has stabilized, with home prices up over the past two quarters, and rising home sales whittling down the elevated inventory of homes for sale. Forward-looking surveys of purchasing managers suggest that the manufacturing sector has begun to expand, while orders for services firms are improving as well. Overall, GDP grew by nearly 3 percent in the third quarter of this year, and many forecasters believe it is on track for a similar increase in the fourth quarter. In sum, the economy remains weak, but a broad view of the data suggests that spending and incomes are on the rebound and that the job market is slowly turning upward as well.

“Today’s data confirm that the labor market is beginning to heal,” said Donald B. Marron, visiting professor at the Georgetown Public Policy Institute and RILA outside economist. “Layoffs have slowed dramatically in recent months, but new hiring remains restrained. Employers are adding hours but not yet jobs, though employment has increased in a few sectors, including temporary help services and department stores. We have a long way to go to get back to the strong economic performance that Americans have come to expect, but the economy and the job market are turning up.”

Health Care Reform and Jobs

Costly burdens, such as those imposed by the health care reform legislation passed in the U.S. House of Representatives, and the legislation currently under consideration in the U.S. Senate, could undermine economic recovery and cost more jobs for the retail industry, while also pushing insured retail employees from the health care plans they currently have and like.

“Congress simply should not pursue major initiatives that could add significantly to the cost and regulatory burdens faced by the retail industry, thus providing a disincentive to the hiring and business investment critical to ongoing economic recovery efforts,” said RILA president Sandy Kennedy.

Of specific concern are provisions within the Senate bill that would shift costs on to employers to pay for a public plan, reduce benefit-design flexibility and innovation, or not take into account the unique needs of the retail workforce such as separate treatment of part-time and holiday hires.

Construction Market to Increase 11% in 2010

McGraw-Hill Construction, part of The McGraw-Hill Companies, released its 2010 Construction Outlook, a mainstay of business planning for construction and manufacturing executives, which forecasts an increase in overall U.S. construction starts for next year. Due to improvement for housing from extremely low levels and broader expansion for public works, the level of construction starts in 2010 is expected to climb 11% to $466.2 billion, following the 25% decline predicted for 2009.

“The U.S. construction market in 2010 will be helped by growth for several sectors, following three straight years of decline that brought total construction activity down 39% from its mid-decade peak,” said Robert A. Murray, vice president of economic affairs for McGraw-Hill Construction, addressing more than 300 construction executives and professionals at the 71st annual Outlook 2010 Executive Conference in Washington today. “The benefits from the stimulus act will broaden in scope, lifting not just highway construction but also environmental public works and several institutional structure types. With continued improvement expected for single family housing, after reaching bottom earlier this year, the overall level of construction activity should see moderate expansion in 2010.”

Highlights of the 2010 Construction Outlook:

•Single family housing for 2010 will advance 32% in dollars, corresponding to a 30% increase in the number of units to 560,000 (McGraw-Hill Construction basis).
•Multifamily housing will improve 16% in dollars and 14% in units, after steep reductions in 2008 and 2009.
•Commercial buildings will drop 4% in dollars, following a steep 43% drop in 2009. The weak employment picture will further depress occupancies, making it even more difficult to justify new construction.
•Institutional buildings will begin to stabilize after losing momentum in 2009. Square footage will retreat another 2% after sliding 23% this year. The dollar amount of construction for this sector will edge up 1%, helped by a growing amount of energy-efficiency upgrades to federal buildings and continued strength for military buildings.
•Manufacturing buildings will drop 14% in dollars and 3% in square feet, hampered by the substantial amount of slack manufacturing capacity.
•Public works construction is expected to rise 14%, given more wide-ranging strength across all project types.
•Electric utility construction will slip 3%, continuing to settle back after a record high in 2008.
 
The 2010 Construction Outlook was presented at the McGraw-Hill Construction Outlook Executive Conference in Washington, DC, which brought together top management from all parts of the construction industry including firms involved in building product manufacturing, architecture and design, contracting, engineering, industry associations and other industry professionals. At the event, Frank Giunta of Hill International and George Pierson of Parsons Brinckerhoff offered insights to an industry emerging from the crisis:

“The stimulus funds are meant to be just that, a stimulus, not the be-all-end-all answer to infrastructure financing,” said Frank J. Giunta, senior vice president and managing director of Hill International. “Both public and private sectors need to be innovative and rewrite the rules of project finance to address tremendous construction needs with minimal financing options.”

“The efforts of the federal agencies at transparency and their willingness to engage with private industry is refreshing,” said George J. Pierson, chief operating officer, Parsons Brinckerhoff. “We have to work together to meet the challenges of infrastructure and this economy.”

Related Links
McGraw-Hill Construction full report: 2010 Construction Outlook.
IBISWorld industry report: Heavy Infrastructure Construction in the U.S.