As 2009 comes to a close and Obama’s popularity dwindles, the majority of Americans are filled with significant uncertainty and anxiety about the state of the US economy – and its prospects for a quick recovery in the New Year.
Of the 1,000 Americans surveyed by telephone over the weekend by polling firm StrategyOne, nearly 9 in 10 Americans (87%) believe the US is still in a recession and 3 in 4 (78%) disagree with economic experts that the US is no longer in a recession.
Despite increasingly optimisic talk from experts about the health of economy, just 1 in 4 (26%) believe the economy will recover fully by the end of 2010. Instead, the majority of Americans – 51% – believe the economy won’t fully recover and be back on track until sometime until the end of 2011 – or even 2012. A frighteningly high 15% believe the economy will never fully recover.
“Consumers appear more likely to believe the economy has stabilized compared to the summer, but see a pretty long road to full economic recovery,” said Bradley Honan, Senior Vice President of StrategyOne, who authored the survey. “15% of US consumers believing a full recovery won’t ever take place speaks to how deeply scarred America has been left by the recession – and how the hangover is likely to last well beyond the ‘official’ end of the recession.”
The StrategyOne survey also found that slightly more people believe that the economy is on the wrong track (48%) than on the right track (44%), and most Americans believe the economy has either “not yet bottomed out and will get worse” (34%) or that “it’s at the bottom and not getting better or worse” (19%).
That’s not to say that opinions are not shifting more positively though, indeed they are. For example, Americans are not nearly as negative about the state of the economy as they were in July.
Today 42% say the economy has “bottomed out and is getting better” compared with just 30% who felt that way in July of this year. The current StrategyOne survey found that the youngest consumers polled, those 18-34 years of age, were most likely (50%) to believe the economy has already “bottomed out and is getting better” compared with just 38% of those 55 years and older, who feel the same way. There is clearly a significant generational gap about perceptions of the economy today.
“It’s clear some of the positive discussion about the economic recovery has broken through – but there is still much, much more consumers need to hear to regain their confidence in the direction of our economy,” said Bradley Honan of StrategyOne.
StrategyOne conducted 1,000 telephone interviews among a representative sampling of Americans between December 16 and 20, 2009. The overall margin of sampling error at the 95% level of confidence is = +/- 3.1% overall and larger for subgroups. Statistical weights were designed from the United States Census Bureau statistics.